27 Jul Strong GDP
Mortgage bonds are flat this morning following a strong, but not stronger than expectations, reading on GDP. The first look at 2nd quarter GDP showed that the US economy grew at a pace of 4.1% during this time, which is the strongest reading in nearly 4 years. The overall annualized pace of GDP in much lower, with the last 4 quarters now averaging in at 3%. We will likely see the 3rd quarter GDP come in lower as the “export” component of the report will likely be adversely impacted due to the tariffs.
Next week will be action packed for the bond market, with several key economic reports scheduled for release. Most importantly, next Friday will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Jobs Report showing new job creations in the month of July. We will likely see volatility heat up in advance of this report, which generally isn’t good news for those needing to lock in an interest rate.
Given the significant ceilings of resistance holding interest rates back from improvement, combined with the volatility of next week’s economic reports, we will maintain a locking stance.