12 Dec Stock Investors Excited Again…..
After a rough opening for the US stock market this morning, President Trump stepped in with more encouraging news surrounding the trade war agreement with China. Following his Tweet, the US stock market quickly shot up to achieve new all-time high levels. Although large firms such as Merrill Lynch believe a trade war agreement will be signed by the end of the year, I continue to have doubts. With this being an election year, I believe President Trump needs the continued bump in the US stock market that occurs each time he makes a positive statement on the trade war. This could be used as a tool to manipulate stock investors to keep stock prices high while he is seeking election. Although this is a conspiracy theory, I see it as a strong likelihood.
This morning’s Unemployment Claims report came in showing that 252,000 people made unemployment claims last month. This represents an increase of 49,000 from the week prior, and far exceeded the market’s expectations of 213,000. As we get closer to Christmas, I believe we will see many employers resist laying off staff to avoid the stigma of laying off staff just before Christmas. This will likely shift many of the claims that would otherwise hit in the month of December to be pushed into January. I think it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Hopefully everyone who has a loan that will be closing in the near-term is already locked. For those that haven’t, we maintain a locking bias.