14 Aug Quiet Economic News Day
Stocks are much higher today, as geopolitical news of a more diplomatic stance towards North Korea is giving markets hope that war won’t be the outcome. As expected, this is taking a toll on mortgage bonds, with interest rates again being pressured higher. After reaching near multi-month lows last week, interest rates have lost ground in recent trading days. If stocks continue to climb higher, we could see mortgage bonds drift down to the next level of support. At this point, that seems to be the likely near-term path.
Investors and analysts are warning that with the next recession already overdue, Central Bankers need to be prepared to act once more to help boost the US economy. If the current economic growth expansion continues to stall, we could see the path of higher short-term interest rates stall and possibly even reverse. Although too early to say if or when this will happen, the future prospect chatter is elevating.
Today is a relatively quiet economic news day, so the technical picture will heavily dictate the bond market’s performance. With pricing under continued pressure, we will maintain our locking bias.