20 Oct No immediate need to lock
Mortgage bonds are holding their ground so far this morning, remaining above a critical floor of support that is preventing mortgage interest rates from climbing higher. The 10 Year Treasury Note yield is still above its 200 day moving average, but is currently making a run to break beneath. A break below this level in the 10 Year market would be an extraordinary win for mortgage bonds. That would help settle the bond market and could give mortgage rates a break from the run higher they have made the past few weeks. However, that is not the likely scenario at this point. It may happen, but would be the exception and not the rule.
Yesterday’s Housing Starts came showing weakness in new homes breaking ground, with the monthly results showing a 9% drop from the month prior. This disappointing figure was the lowest reported so far in 2016. Housing Permits, on the other hand, came in much stronger than expected, increasing 6% to a 1.225 million pace. Since the permit figure is a forward indicator of future Housing Starts, next month’s report will likely be stronger.
Once again, there is no immediate need to lock. However, float only if you are able to watch the markets closely.