Will Appreciation Continue??

Welcome back to another week of record breaking housing appreciation.

Let’s start with CoreLogic, one of the largest real estate data aggregators on the planet, who despite having all of the necessary resources, continues to miss the ball on home appreciation. If we go back a year ago, people were split. Many though the housing market was tapped out and would see minimal growth and others thought the near decade long climb would continue. Not only did CoreLogic think the market would slow, they projected -6.6% appreciation across the housing market. Well, we know we saw 13%+ appreciation in the past year, making their projection off somewhere near 20%. This month, they are holding onto their pessimistic housing beliefs.

CoreLogic is forecasting 2.8% appreciation over the next 12 months projecting 1.1% of that appreciation to come in June alone. Now, they forecasted that same 1.1% in May, but actual appreciation came in over 2% – close to the projected appreciation for the next year. Nobody has a crystal ball to see where this crazy housing market is going, but a company like CoreLogic should see that the housing market has enough pend up demand and lack of supply to prevent a 50% reduction in appreciation over the next 30 days.

Mortgage Backed Securities are down 9 bps from Friday. On the bright side, they do have a strong floor of support below them. We are carefully floating if you are able to watch the market. However, if this floor of support is broken, we will immediately lock.

Have a great day everyone!