As we discussed in yesterday’s market update, the rally in the mortgage bond market exceeded a healthy level and markets are now in corrective mode. As a result, we are experiencing upward pressure to mortgage interest rates. This is nothing more than a technical move. The unknown is how far this correction will take us. Keep in mind, I remain believing that now is a great opportunity to secured a rate for those who need to close in the near term. However, in the longer term, I see rates moving even lower than they are today. In fact, I see rates moving to the lowest we have ever seen in history. That’s a bold statement to stand by, considering that most experts expected to see rates in the 5.5% – 6% rate in 2019. The lesson to learn from this is that the masses almost always miss the mark. Taking a contrarian view will often lead you to a more realistic reality. This especially goes for the Fed. They have a terrible reputation for missing economic expectations. A look at history will show that most Fed long term predictions are wrong.
The S&P 500 is once again sitting at all-time record highs. Someone needs to alert stock investors of what is coming. Clearly, the optimistic belief in the stock market is at all all time high as well. Historically, this happens when markets have reached their peaks. Just know that soft money is what is driving the markets higher. The real players are able to better predict the path that lies before us, and many have already cashed in their stock positions in favor of more stable investments. Be careful of your retirement accounts and consider taking a more conservative approach going forward.
I remain in a locking position in the short term and a floating position in the long term.