Mortgage Rates Fearing a Technical (but Small) Climb

Mortgage bonds have slowly moved to the top of their trading range, which from a technical perspective, means that we are likely to see pricing deteriorate in the days to come.  Since breakouts are the exception and not the rule, it is more common to see a strong ceiling hold in place.  In the event we do see a breakout, that would mean better interest rate pricing ahead.  However, that is rare.

As the nation ponders how to deal with the rapidly growing number of Covid-19 cases, famed infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, issued a warning that failure to change from the current path could result in a growth rate of 100,000 cases per day.  Although the very thought of this should scare stock investors, they so far seem unfazed by the announcement.  With the state of Arizona now heading back into lock down status as a way to slow the growth rate of this deadly disease, other states will be considering how they plan to stall the growth.  The trade off between sacrificing the US economy or sacrificing US lives is heated battle in many states.  There just doesn’t appear to be good path forward.  The consequences of either are too high to fathom.

With bond prices at the top of a trading range, the safe play is to lock.