Locking Bias

Investors had a few positive housing reports to sift through this morning.  Building permits for both September and October beat estimates, with multi-family dwellings being the key component.  The Case Shiller Home Price Index also beat estimates, coming in at a 13.3% year over year price increase.  Consumer Confidence was reported lower than expected, and that seems to be keeping markets in check for now.  mortgage bonds are starting another day stuck to the bottom of the 50 day moving average.  Our daily battle at this level has led to sharp drops in bond pricing the past few times.  Markets will likely be looking to tomorrow’s GDP as a reason to break through this level or retreat back down.  Either way, today will likely be met with push back as we approach the overhead resistance.  With that in mind, we will suggest securing in the current pricing today.  If you feel the GDP figure will disappoint the markets, floating into tomorrow’s announcement may improve bonds.  However, if the figure is strong, lock.