Jobs Report Disappoints

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Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report showed that new job creations in the month of July were surprisingly lower than the market anticipated. While the market was expecting a number close to 190,000, the actual report came in at just 157,000. However, there were upward revisions to the past two months’ reports that added another 59,000 to the overall total. As a result, the market’s overall reaction was muted. Although we expect to see job gains slow as summer jobs wind down, it was interesting to see the slow-down begin in July.

 

Another component to the BLS report is the Unemployment Rate. As expected, it fell from 4.0% down to 3.9%. Although this is good news for the labor market, keep in mind that each time the Unemployment Rate hits a cycle low, it is immediately followed by a recession. With the Unemployment Rate near 49-year lows, there can’t be much downward movement remaining. We could see the rate drop to as low as 3.5% or so. However, once the low is reached, history says a recession is immediately to follow.

 

With the BLS report behind us, there is no need to rush in to lock. Just keep in mind that there is very little room for rates to improve before hitting strong levels of resistance.

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