Jobs Come in Low

Happy hump day everyone! A little bit of disappointing news in the job market today. The ADP jobs report came in at 428k. This is only 36% of the original 1.2M estimate. The number of people coming back to work is great for the economy but does raise the concern of inflation. The big question is if supply chains will be able to handle increased demand once people feel comfortable going out and have more disposable income. Maybe supply chains will scale up quickly, or we could see the same thing that is happening in the lumber market.

Mortgage backed securities are slightly down today. However, it looks like they may be making a run at their 25 day moving average. We suggest to carefully float hoping they will break above. However, be in a position to lock quickly in case they continue to fall.