Collusion News Coming Down the Pike?

After last night’s interview on CNN with President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, it seems that it is no longer a question as to whether there was collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, it’s merely a question as to whether President Trump was aware of the collusion or personally involved. Rudy has a history of announcing information to the public just before it is brought out through the media. This may be a “soft landing” approach to news that it will be released in the days to come. The concern is what will happen to the stock market if information regarding collusion is released. It will almost certainly move democrats to push for impeachment, which could cause a lot of investors to become nervous about the direction of the stock market going forward.

Mortgage bond pricing has slowly been fading lower. The good side to this is that it has not been in one dramatic move, but rather in tiny steps taken each day. This is causing mortgage interest rate pricing to inch higher, albeit at a slow pace. We seem to be in more of a sideways trading pattern, which if this is true, we are not at the bottom of the sideways trading channel. This means we will either see slight improvements in the days to come as bond prices bounce off the floor and make a run higher, or we will see pricing break beneath the floor. If the floor is broken, we can expect a more dramatic move to the downside.

I feel the risk of floating does not outweigh the downside potential. I will maintain a locking bias.