Bonds at Top of Trading Range

There are no economic reports scheduled for today, so markets will trade heavily based on the technical picture. The only news of the week will be treasury auction results and then some inflation data on Friday.

Mortgage bonds are currently trading in a wide range, with a triple ceiling of resistance holding mortgage interest rates from improving. If bonds can break above this ceiling, it will be a good sign for the near-term direction of mortgage rates. However, since breakouts are the exception and not the rule, we shouldn’t count on that happening.

Given the strength of overhead resistance holding bond prices down, we will have a locking bias.