01 Jun Markets can change without notice
Mortgage bonds continued their run higher on Friday after a low GPD reading for the 1st quarter of 2015 was released. This report provided the fuel
to lift bonds above their 25 day moving average. However, at the end of the day, bonds did not have the muster to break above the two additional
ceilings of resistance that are just above the 25 DMA. Therefore, they are now trapped in a very tight space looking for direction and a reason
to make a move one way or the other. With the upward trading channel still in place, it is likely the break will be higher. However, we
are reaching a point where we may see a pull back and have bonds trade in a sideways pattern out of the channel.
Stock futures are pointing higher this morning, after equities posted their worst week in the past six weeks. The gain in the stock market today is fueled
by optimism out of Greece that progress is being made in a debt restructure plan. There is hope that a financing deal will be in place by June
5th. At this point, the stock market is looking for any hint of hope in the global economy to push the markets higher. The ease at which
stock investors are satisfied is disturbing to the Fed, as the fear of an asset bubble continues to build. At some point, the stock market will
be forced to face the reality that the bond market has clearly accepted. There is more weakness in the economy than stock prices reflect.
Although the risk of floating is getting greater, there is no immediate need to lock. However, if you choose to float do so with caution. Markets
can change without notice.