19 Aug Market is continuing its downward slide
The bond market is continuing its downward slide, pushing interest rates up to fresh highs for 2013. Word on the streets is that the bond market will likely get worse before things get better. The 10 Year Treasury is now sitting at 2.89 with many expecting for it to reach 3.0 before we see improvement. The bear market pattern we are trapped in has consistently provided rapid deterioration in interest rates, followed by a bit of market calmness, again followed by a rapid deterioration in rates. As far as today is concerned, there isn’t any significant news release driving down the bond market. It seems to be a continuation of fears of the Fed pulling out of QE3. Although I expect most of the pull out of QE3 already priced into the market, it seems there is still room for rates to worsen before they stabilize. At some point it seems logical that the stock market will have a larger drop based on the fears of surviving without government support. When that happens, we can hope for a flow of money out of the stock market to make it in to the bond market to help improve interest rates. For now, we are continuing our locking bias.