19 May Market has a different plan
Yesterday, mortgage bonds ended the trading day sitting right on their 200 day moving average. As the market opened, prices jumped higher.
However, sentiment quickly turned negative and bonds fell. The 200 DMA was no match for the downward momentum and bonds fell beneath like a hot
knife through butter. The move lower is in spite of news out of Europe that their equivalent to the Federal Reserve would be purchasing additional
bonds with their currency. This would typically help improve mortgage rates here in the US. However, the markets are moving without logic
to the current global economic environment.
This move lower created a very negative technical picture which is now on the verge of looking like a long term change in direction for mortgage rates.
We have had nearly two years of steady decreasing interest rates. Although along the path there have been good and bad times in the market, overall
the trend has been for rates to move lower. If we break beneath the channel that has carried mortgage rates lower, as is looking more likely
at this point, rates will certainly move higher. Although there are many reasons to justify lower rates, the market may have a different plan.
With mortgage bonds breaking down again, we will suggest a locking bias. Until we see signs of stability, the safe play is to secure an interest
rate just as soon as you are cleared to lock in.