25 Nov Locking here is a safe play
It’s a short holiday week, with markets closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Markets are open Friday, but the hours are shortened and the volume is expected to be light. Stocks are hovering near even for now, and mortgage bonds are on their 3rdday trying to break above the 50 DMA. The bond market has $96 billion in auctions to contend with over the next 3 days as well. Pending Home Sales for October came in lower than expected, and that report is likely helping hold bonds up for the moment. Bond prices are close to the middle of a trading range they’ve been stuck in for the last 2 weeks, with the top and bottom being defined by the 200 and 100 DMA’s. We can maintain a cautious floating bias as long as we hold above the 100 DMA as support. However, given the recent history of rates moving higher as we approach these levels, locking is the safe play.