10 Jan Locking bias for short term and cautious floating for long term
Markets opened with stocks higher initially as China reported stronger than expected economic data. Initial Jobless Claims came in slightly higher at 371,000, which is the highest number in a month. Stocks have since moved back to flat. mortgagebonds opened lower and continue to be under pressure with another $13 billion auction of 30 year bonds later today. Yesterday’s 10 year auction did not rate very well, so investors don’t expect a great report today either. Bonds did close above the 100 DMA yesterday, but have moved back below at the open today. It seems the trading character of bonds has resulted in more pressure on pushing rates higher, making it difficult for rates to move lower. Given the auction today, locking is a safe play, but a cautious floating stance on longer term transactions gives bond prices another chance to break above resistance.