23 May Locking bias
Stocks are again proving to be the Honey-Badgers of the investment world, as they don’t seem to care what happens here at home in the US or around the rest of the world for that matter. They just climb their way higher, looking to establish new record highs in a world of political and terror unrest. Luckily, the bond market is again proving to be the more sensible of the two competing investment worlds, with bond prices remains high in this world of unknowns and volatility. Given that tax reform was one of the primary catalysts to propel stocks to current levels, it seems that the realization that it will not likely happen anytime soon, if at all, should cause investors reason to pull back. But no, a honey-badger doesn’t care. They’ll sacrifice their own life for the sake of one enjoyable meal.
The Trump Administration stirred additional controversy yesterday with the announced $3.6 trillion cuts to government to reduce the US government’s role in society. The cuts will mainly impact the poor, recent college graduates and farmers. Trump’s proposal is self-proclaimed to balance the US budget in 10 years. However, many republicans in the House and Senate call the bill dead on arrival. Even Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said that he expects the Republican led Congress to largely ignore the bill, stating that it reflected priorities that aren’t necessarily in line with theirs. None the less, the Administration is fighting for a plan that is for the taxpayers, which will benefit the ones who pay the taxes. It will be another interesting event to watch unfold in our political world.
Bonds remain trapped between a strong floor of support and a seemingly impossible to penetrate ceiling of resistance. With little potential gains to float, we will maintain our locking bias.