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Today’s Mortgage Rates in April 2025
Apr 07, 2025
Mortgage Rate Outlook
Mortgage rates are climbing again to start the week. While a strong technical ceiling may help prevent rates from breaking much higher, the risk of floating in this market remains high. With economic and geopolitical uncertainty running hot, locking in a rate—especially for near-term closings—continues to be the safer move.
1️⃣ A New Black Swan? Global Trade Shake-Up Begins This Week
Every so often, a “black swan” event disrupts the global economy. The last major one was the Covid-19 pandemic. This week, the spotlight turns to international trade as sweeping new tariffs are set to take effect on Wednesday. What many initially saw as a negotiation tactic has turned into a full-fledged policy shift, catching global markets off guard. The finalized tariff levels are far higher than anticipated, leading to a swift and severe market reaction.
Trillions in global market value have already been erased, and mortgage rates have been on a rollercoaster—initially falling as investors rushed to safety, but now rebounding back to pre-tariff levels. Volatility is likely here to stay.
2️⃣ Recession Risk Rising as Trump Holds the Line
Recession odds are climbing fast. Many economists now view a recession as imminent if President Trump sticks to his tariff plan. Though internal advisors and global leaders are urging him to reconsider or at least delay the rollout, Trump remains steadfast. Reports indicate that some within the administration underestimated the global economic blowback.
So far, Trump has doubled down, stating there is “zero chance” the tariffs will be delayed or revised. Markets are now being forced to reprice risk based on the new reality—one that could significantly slow growth in the coming quarters.
3️⃣ Jobs Report Beats—But the Good News May Be Short-Lived
On a more positive note, last week’s labor market data provided a temporary boost. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 228,000 new jobs added in March, far exceeding expectations of 150,000. However, many analysts believe this could be the last strong report before weakness sets in. High-profile layoffs, such as those at DOGE, haven’t yet been fully reflected in the data.
Additionally, pending cuts in federal jobs and corporate cost-cutting—driven by falling stock prices—are expected to weigh heavily on future reports. The next six months could usher in a new phase of economic headwinds.
Mar 31, 2025
Rate Watch: 10-Year Treasury Facing Resistance
Yields on the 10-Year Treasury are currently hovering near their 200-day moving average—a historically strong floor. Breaking below this level would take significant downward momentum, which seems unlikely in the short term. For now, the conservative move is to consider locking in rates.
1️⃣ Home Values Continue to Climb
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a leading measure of home values across the U.S., reported a 4.1% annual gain over the past 12 months. For a homeowner with a $500,000 property, that’s a $20,500 increase in equity—roughly $1,708 per month.
This kind of appreciation represents real wealth creation and is a powerful argument in favor of homeownership. While renting may offer flexibility, it doesn’t build equity. And as appreciation compounds year over year, owning a home becomes even more advantageous over time.
2️⃣ Inflation Runs Hotter Than Expected
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—came in hotter than anticipated for February. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month, bumping the annual rate to 2.8% from 2.7%. This upward trend in inflation makes it harder for the Fed to justify rate cuts anytime soon. Adding to the pressure, impending tariffs could push consumer prices even higher, eroding purchasing power and further complicating the economic outlook.
3️⃣ Tariffs Could Trigger a Stagflation Storm
One of Wall Street’s quiet fears is how consumers will react to the next wave of tariffs—particularly the potential 25% tax on imported cars. Higher prices may cause buyers to delay purchases, especially on big-ticket items like vehicles, leading to reduced demand. If this trend spreads across sectors, we could see a ripple effect of job losses and reduced consumer spending.
When rising prices collide with economic slowdown, it creates a perfect storm known as stagflation—one of the most damaging scenarios an economy can face.
Mar 17, 2025
Mortgage Rate Outlook: Floating, But Watchful 🔄📉
Although mortgage rates have been pressured upward in the past week, there remains a strong ceiling that has held rates from losing too much ground. While the risk of floating is elevated, if you are able to monitor the markets closely and are prepared to lock, there is no immediate risk at this moment.
1️⃣ Encouraging Inflation Data, But Mortgage Rates Rise
February brought some positive news on the inflation front, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by just 0.2%—a sign that inflation remains relatively contained. Under normal circumstances, this would be a catalyst for lower mortgage rates. However, the opposite occurred, with rates ticking up after the announcement.
The primary culprit? Tariff policy changes and growing fears of a trade war, which could drive inflation higher in the months ahead. Investors are now bracing for the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index—on March 28. A hotter-than-expected report could further delay potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
2️⃣ Fed to Hold Rates Steady—For Now
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will wrap up its FOMC meeting, where they are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The central bank is in wait-and-see mode, as the economic impact of new tariffs and trade policies remains uncertain.
A key question is how American consumers will respond. If they continue buying imported goods at higher prices, the inflationary impact could be muted, as tariff revenue is collected by the government rather than circulating through the broader economy. However, if consumers shift toward more expensive U.S.-made alternatives, inflation could accelerate. Compounding the risk, foreign buyers may reduce their purchases of American exports, further weighing on economic growth.
This delicate balance underscores why trade wars rarely deliver the intended economic benefits. Instead, they tend to create volatility and unintended consequences.
3️⃣ Recession Risks Are Rising
Concerns about a looming recession continue to mount, as businesses report slower growth due to tariff uncertainty and weakening consumer demand. Notably, these economic headwinds are emerging before tariffs have even been fully implemented—suggesting more pain could be on the horizon.
One underappreciated risk is the delayed impact of government spending cuts and contractor layoffs. Many federal workers and contractors facing job losses won’t feel the financial strain for another 6-12 months, at which point the economic slowdown could become more pronounced. As consumer spending contracts, the effects will ripple through the economy, further dampening growth.
While recessions are painful in the short term, they can also serve a critical role in restoring long-term economic stability. The key question now is whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to respond with rate cuts—or if inflation concerns will keep them sidelined.
Mar 10, 2025
Mortgage Rate Outlook: Floating, But Watchful 🔄📉
Mortgage rates held steady last week, but they’ll need to break through another level of support before making another move lower. If you can closely monitor the market, you might want to wait and see if rates improve in the coming days. However, be ready to lock in quickly if sentiment shifts.
As always, we’ll keep an eye on the trends and provide updates as the market evolves. Stay informed, and don’t hesitate to reach out if you have questions!
1️⃣ Job Growth Isn’t What It Seems
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest jobs report on Friday, showing that 151,000 new jobs were created in February. At first glance, this looks like a sign of strength. However, most of these jobs were part-time positions, which typically pay less. This is important because the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates high until the job market shows more weakness.
We are starting to see some cracks—the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% to 4.1%. And in the coming months, we expect it to climb even higher as layoffs from government-mandated budget cuts start to take effect. This slowdown in the job market could help push interest rates lower in the near future.
2️⃣ Trade War Tensions Are Rising
The U.S. economy is facing growing uncertainty due to shifting tariff policies. Companies are hesitant to invest when they don’t know what to expect next. Since uncertainty is the enemy of business growth, we’ll likely see corporate spending slow down.
Even worse, other countries are fighting back—China, Mexico, and Canada are all threatening retaliatory tariffs, which would make U.S. exports more expensive overseas. On top of that, reports suggest some consumers in those countries are boycotting American products in protest.
The global economy is deeply connected. A policy change in one country can send shockwaves through others. And while trade wars don’t involve weapons, they can still be extremely damaging.
3️⃣ Stock Market Slips as Recession Fears Grow
The U.S. stock market is feeling the heat. Last week, the S&P 500 dropped 3.1%, and early Monday trading shows it’s down another 2%. The bigger concern? The S&P is on track to fall below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2023—ending a 336-day streak above this critical level.
Why does this matter for mortgages? Recession fears usually push mortgage rates lower. The U.S. economy has been overheated for too long, fueled by heavy government spending that has driven up inflation and interest rates. A slowdown could be just what’s needed to bring stability back.
Mar 03, 2025
Mortgage Rate Outlook: Floating, But Watchful 🔄📉
Mortgage rates continue to improve, and we are maintaining a floating bias for now. However, with economic uncertainty lingering, we are watching market sentiment closely and ready to lock in rates if conditions shift.
1️⃣ Fed Rate Cut Looking More Likely as Tariff Fears Ease 📉🏛️
Concerns that tariffs might force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates are quickly fading. With economic conditions softening, businesses and consumers are feeling the effects of tariffs much like a tax hike—leading to higher prices on imported goods without boosting corporate profits or wages. Instead, this added cost is dampening economic activity.
As a result, the Fed is increasingly likely to cut rates, with markets now pricing in a 70% chance of a June rate cut—a major shift from earlier expectations.
2️⃣ Inflation Report Supports a Lower Rate Environment 📊💵
Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report came in right on expectations, with prices rising 0.3% in January—a seasonal increase that bond investors had already factored in.
Here are the key takeaways:
✅ Headline inflation fell from 2.6% to 2.5% annually
✅ Core inflation (excluding food & energy) dropped from 2.9% to 2.6%
✅ Personal incomes jumped 0.9%, largely due to annual wage increases and Social Security adjustments
This report reassured the bond market, easing fears of persistent inflation and helping mortgage rates trend lower in the near term.
3️⃣ Debt Pressures Are Rising: A Growing Concern 💳🚨👥
Red flags in consumer debt continue to emerge:
📌 Auto loan delinquencies (60+ days) surged 7% in January—hitting an all-time high
📌 Credit card minimum payments are also at record highs
Why is this happening? Higher interest rates have cut off a financial lifeline that many homeowners relied on for decades: mortgage refinancing to consolidate debt. In past years, falling mortgage rates allowed borrowers to refinance every few years, reducing their overall debt burden.
Now, after four straight years of rising mortgage rates, that cycle has been broken, leaving many consumers struggling to keep up with their payments. If rates don’t start coming down soon, rising consumer debt could trigger broader financial instability.
Feb 24, 2025
Mortgage Rate Outlook: Caution on Floating 🔒📈
Mortgage rates have now fallen below their 200-day moving average, a key technical level that often signals a trend reversal. If this downward trend holds, it could put additional pressure on mortgage rates to fall further. That said, floating your rate remains risky. If you choose to float, keep a close eye on market developments and be ready to lock in your rate should conditions start to shift unexpectedly.
1️⃣ Existing Home Sales Hit Historic Lows 📉🏠
Recent reports indicate that existing home sales have dropped to levels not seen since 1995. Considering the substantial population growth since then, this slowdown underscores just how sluggish the housing market has been over the past couple of years. On the bright side, inventory levels of existing homes are rising, which could help moderate the rapid pace of home price appreciation. For first-time homebuyers who’ve been priced out by soaring home values and high mortgage rates, increased inventory is a welcome development. However, for true affordability to improve, we need a significant drop in either mortgage rates or home prices—or ideally both. Let’s hope that 2025 brings the relief the housing market desperately needs.
2️⃣ Key Report to Watch This Friday: CPI & Labor Data 🔍📊
All eyes are on this Friday’s release of January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed’s favorite gauge of consumer inflation. If this report shows that inflation is cooling, it could boost expectations for future Fed rate cuts, benefiting mortgage rates. For rates to continue their downward trend, we need to see a weakening labor market alongside falling inflation. If both the PCE report and the following week’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report point to softness, that could pressure the Fed to start cutting rates sooner rather than later.
3️⃣ Softening Labor Market Could Help Rates 📉👥
The labor market is beginning to show signs of strain. Tens of thousands of federal employees have been laid off, and an additional 75,000 or more have accepted early buyouts. While these job losses are hard on those affected, they may help ease the tight labor market that’s been fueling inflation. Keep in mind, however, that many of these layoffs will take months to fully reflect in unemployment data. Over time, this shift could help push mortgage rates lower, but it may not offer immediate relief.
