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Today’s Mortgage Rates in November 2025
Nov 3, 2025
1️⃣ Mortgage Rates React to the Fed’s Cut
Last week’s Federal Reserve rate announcement put an end to the short term downward trend of mortgage rates, sending rates higher immediately following Fed Chairman Powell’s comments in his prepared speech. While the Fed’s cut was intended to support a slowing economy, the bond market was focused on the hesitant tone from Powell, suggesting that a December rate cut is not a certainty.
This tug-of-war between optimism and concern reflects the delicate balance we’re in right now. On one hand, the Fed’s easing is welcome news long term for homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance, as it helps improve affordability. On the other, the very reason for the Fed’s rate cut—slowing growth—suggests the economy could be losing momentum, which brings its own risks for the housing market. For now, rates appear to have found a temporary ceiling, but if that barrier is broken, we could see them take another step higher in the days ahead.
2️⃣ Confidence Falters as Consumers Brace for Slower Times
Adding to the concern, consumer confidence has now fallen for the third straight month. The latest data from the Conference Board shows that optimism about the future is fading, with Americans growing more worried about their jobs, income prospects, and the overall economy. While the current conditions index—how people feel about the present—ticked slightly higher, expectations for the next six months dropped to their lowest level since early summer.
It’s clear that consumers are beginning to feel the pinch of a cooling labor market and persistent inflation, now hovering near 3%. Many say they believe the economy has already slipped into recession, even if official data doesn’t yet confirm it. For the housing market, this type of sentiment matters deeply. When people are uneasy about job security or future earnings, big financial commitments—like buying a home—tend to get delayed. Builders and real estate agents are already reporting more cautious buyers, and lenders are watching credit quality closely.
The silver lining is that weaker confidence could prompt the Fed to remain supportive for longer, potentially keeping mortgage rates from spiking. But for now, the emotional temperature of the consumer is telling us that the road ahead could be bumpy.
3️⃣ The Fed Ends QT
The big news this week came straight from the Federal Reserve. At its October 29 meeting, the Fed officially announced that its balance-sheet reduction program—known as Quantitative Tightening, or QT—will come to an end on December 1, 2025. This marks a dramatic shift in monetary policy after more than three years of balance-sheet contraction that removed roughly $2.2 trillion in liquidity from the financial system.
What happens next is even more significant. Beginning in December, the Fed will transition into a neutral maintenance phase and reinvest all principal payments from maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Those reinvestments will primarily flow into short-term Treasury bills, which will help stabilize money markets and inject liquidity back into the system.
In short, the Fed is signaling a move from contraction to expansion—effectively paving the way toward a new round of Quantitative Easing (QE). When QE begins, the Fed buys longer-term bonds to lower borrowing costs and stimulate economic growth. For the mortgage market, that typically means downward pressure on long-term rates, including mortgage rates. This is one of the most market-friendly announcements we’ve seen in years and could prove to be a turning point for housing affordability heading into 2026.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
Bottom Line – Maintaining Short Term Locking Bias
In this environment, timing is everything. For those who need to close soon, it makes sense to lock in a rate rather than risk potential volatility. Rates have already improved significantly from their highs earlier this year, and waiting for perfection could mean missing the current window of opportunity.
For borrowers who have more time before their closing date or are still shopping, cautiously floating could make sense—just know that the margin for improvement may be narrowing.
Oct 27, 2025
1️⃣ Inflation Offers a Bit of Relief, but the Fight Isn’t Over
Friday’s Consumer Price Index report gave both Wall Street and Main Street a small sigh of relief. Inflation rose just 0.3% in September—slightly below expectations—and while the annual rate inched up from 2.9% to 3.0%, it was still better than the 3.1% economists had anticipated. When volatile food and energy prices are removed, the “core” rate of inflation rose just 0.2% for the month, bringing the year-over-year number down to 3%.
This may not sound like much, but these small moves carry big weight. The report shows that underlying price pressures continue to trend lower, especially in categories like rent, travel, and services. That’s encouraging news for the Federal Reserve, which has spent more than two years trying to tame inflation back to its 2% target. For consumers, it’s a sign that the worst of the price surges may be behind us. However, tariff-related inflation remains a concern, and as long as those trade pressures linger, there’s still a ceiling on how low prices—and ultimately rates—can go.
2️⃣ All Eyes on the Fed This Week
The next big event comes Wednesday when the Federal Reserve announces its latest policy decision. Virtually everyone expects a quarter-percent rate cut, and those odds are already fully baked into current mortgage pricing. What’s more interesting is that Friday’s tame inflation report has increased the likelihood of another cut in December to around 80%.
While most of the focus will be on whether the Fed follows through with the cut, the bigger story for mortgage rates lies in what happens with the Fed’s balance sheet. Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted that the era of Quantitative Tightening—the process of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet by letting bonds mature—is nearing an end. If the Fed confirms that plan, it would mean as much as $35 billion per month flowing back into the bond market. That’s a powerful force that could help ease longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, over time.
Of course, history reminds us that Fed announcements are unpredictable. Even when the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates don’t always follow immediately. That’s because mortgage pricing is driven by long-term bond yields and inflation expectations, not just the Fed Funds Rate. Still, the combination of a cooling inflation trend and a Fed preparing to inject liquidity into the bond market sets the stage for potential improvement ahead.
3️⃣ The Shutdown Drags On—Now the Second Longest in U.S. History
Today marks Day 27 of the federal government shutdown—now officially the second longest in U.S. history, trailing only the 35-day shutdown that stretched from late 2018 into early 2019. Roughly 750,000 federal workers are currently on furlough, with many agencies operating on skeleton crews. Beyond the political drama, the shutdown’s economic toll is beginning to mount. If it continues into November, programs such as food assistance could be disrupted, putting roughly one in eight Americans at risk of losing vital benefits.
Markets are watching this closely, as prolonged shutdowns can chip away at economic growth and dent consumer confidence. Ironically, the slowdown that comes from a government shutdown could help keep inflation in check—but at the cost of financial stability for millions of families. For now, the impasse centers around healthcare policy and the cost of private market insurance, but pressure is building to reach a deal before more households feel the pain.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
Bottom Line – Maintaining a Locking Bias
Meanwhile, the 10-Year Treasury yield continues to test the critical 4% level. Mortgage rates tend to move in the same direction as Treasury yields, so a decisive break below 4% could signal the start of a sustained improvement in mortgage pricing. Until that happens, however, any rally should be approached cautiously.
While we’re seeing encouraging signs that inflation is cooling and that the Fed is preparing to support the bond market, there’s still plenty of uncertainty ahead. Historically, Fed announcements have not been friendly to mortgage bonds, and the ongoing government shutdown adds another layer of volatility. If you’re set to close soon, locking your rate remains the safer play. For those with more time before closing, there’s potential for improvement, but be ready to move quickly if markets turn.
Oct 20, 2025
1️⃣ Fed signals the end of Quantitative Tightening is near
The biggest headline of the week came from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested that the Fed’s long-running Quantitative Tightening program may soon come to an end. This marks a major shift in policy. In plain terms, it means the Fed will stop reducing the size of its balance sheet — a move that will translate to billions of additional dollars each month flowing back into the bond market.
While most of those purchases will likely be in U.S. Treasuries, the added demand will still help support overall bond prices and soften yields across the board, including for mortgage-backed securities. That’s good news for mortgage rates, which often benefit when the Fed is adding liquidity to the bond market.
After nearly three years of aggressive tightening, this pivot represents a clear signal that the Fed believes its work is largely done. Non-tariff driven inflation has cooled, the labor market has shown signs of balance, and policymakers are preparing to shift from fighting inflation to maintaining stability. Markets quickly responded, with Treasury yields easing and investors beginning to price in the potential for rate cuts in the year ahead.
2️⃣Bank worries and China tensions stir up October volatility
Even as optimism built around the Fed’s message, markets were rattled by renewed concerns over the health of regional banks (including Utah’s Zions Bank) and the ongoing trade battle with China. Several regional lenders reported higher losses tied to commercial real estate loans, raising questions about credit exposure and risk management. Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Beijing flared again as both sides discussed new tariffs and export restrictions on critical materials.
Together, these stories created another week of volatility — something October is famous for. Investors toggled between hope for lower rates and fear of what rising global tension could mean for economic growth. Still, the overall picture remains constructive. Inflation continues to cool, the Fed is signaling an end to tightening, and the economy appears to be slowing in a controlled way.
Volatility may persist, but the foundation for lower rates is forming beneath the surface.
3️⃣Ten-Year Treasury dips below 4%, raising hope for lower mortgage rates
The most encouraging news for borrowers came from the bond market. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury briefly dipped below 4% last week — a key psychological level that often attracts investors and sparks optimism for lower mortgage rates.
Although mortgage rates don’t move perfectly with the 10-Year, they generally follow the same direction. Historically, mortgage rates have averaged just under 2% above the yield on the 10-Year Treasury. In recent years, that spread widened to nearly 3% as lenders priced in added risk. The good news is that the spread has been narrowing steadily throughout 2025, now sitting near 2.25%.
If yields continue to edge lower and spreads tighten further, we could see mortgage rates fall faster than the bond market alone would suggest. It’s too early to call it a trend, but there’s real momentum building for a meaningful step down in rates in the months ahead.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
Bottom Line – If Floating, do so Only with One Hand on the Lock Trigger
With the Fed preparing to end Quantitative Tightening and the 10-Year Treasury testing the 4% level, conditions are improving for lower rates. However, yields still face strong support at current levels, and markets remain highly sensitive to economic data and global headlines.
For loans closing soon, if you are risk adverse, it remains wise to lock and protect against short-term reversals. For those with more time, the outlook continues to brighten. The bond market is beginning to feel the early effects of a shift in Fed policy — and that could soon translate into better mortgage rates ahead.
Oct 14, 2025
1️⃣ The Consumer Mood Turns Gloomy — Inflation’s Shadow Grows
This week began under a cloud of growing anxiety among everyday Americans. The New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed a noticeable shift: consumers are now expecting higher inflation over the next year, with median expectations climbing to around 3.4%. Even more concerning, households reported an increased perceived risk of job loss, and expectations for unemployment rose.
For much of 2025, consumers had maintained a surprising level of optimism that inflation would continue easing. That optimism now appears to be fading. Rising borrowing costs, higher prices at the grocery store, and growing uncertainty about the economy have chipped away at confidence. This shift matters because sentiment drives spending—and when consumers grow cautious, growth tends to slow. The outlook now suggests that the burden of higher prices may linger longer than hoped.
2️⃣A Fractured Fed: Two Cuts Still in the Cards — If the Data Cooperates
The release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes painted a picture of a divided central bank. While most Fed officials still anticipate two rate cuts before the end of the year, they’re far from unified on the timing or pace. Some policymakers believe inflation progress has stalled and want to keep rates higher for longer, while others worry that the economy is cooling faster than expected.
The challenge for the Fed is that the data itself has become less reliable due to recent disruptions from the partial government shutdown. With limited visibility into key economic indicators, officials are being forced to rely more on forecasts than hard data—a dangerous position for a central bank trying to walk the line between slowing inflation and avoiding a recession.
At this point, the Fed’s message is clear: they want to lower rates, but they don’t want to get caught easing too soon. If inflation cools meaningfully in the months ahead, expect rate cuts to follow. But if inflation expectations continue to rise, the brakes could stay on longer than markets currently expect.
3️⃣Tariff Shock, Market Fury, and a Reprieve — But Something Smells Off
The most dramatic development of the week came late Friday when President Trump announced a sweeping 100% tariff on Chinese imports. The move was described as retaliation against China’s restrictions on rare earth exports—materials vital to the tech and defense industries. The announcement stunned financial markets, triggering a sharp selloff in both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Adding intrigue to the chaos, market analysts noted unusually high levels of short selling—especially in crypto—just before the announcement. That timing raised eyebrows and led to speculation that some traders may have known what was coming.
By Sunday, President Trump softened his tone, assuring the public that “it will all be fine.” That single statement helped reverse much of Friday’s panic, with both stock and crypto markets rallying back.
However, there was another reversal in tone including China stating they will, “fight to the end” if the US wants a trade war.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
Bottom Line – Maintaining a Locking Bias
Mortgage rates remain near the lowest levels we’ve seen in 2025, but volatility is back in full force. Between uncertain inflation expectations, a divided Fed, and policy headlines swinging markets overnight, this isn’t the time to gamble. We continue to maintain a locking bias to protect against sudden reversals.
However, if the 10-Year Treasury yield breaks below 4%, that could open the door for a new round of rate improvements. Until then, the safe play is to lock and stay positioned for stability in an increasingly unpredictable market.
Oct 07, 2025
1️⃣ Washington Gridlock Triggers a Shutdown
Last week, Congress once again showed how divided our political system has become. Even with Republicans holding both the House and the Senate, lawmakers couldn’t agree on a budget bill — and as a result, the federal government officially shut down.
This means hundreds of thousands of federal workers are now furloughed, and key agencies are running on fumes. Essential operations like defense, TSA, and Social Security are still functioning, but most other areas are paused until funding is restored.
Every day the shutdown continues adds pressure to the economy. Confidence takes a hit, small businesses feel the strain, and uncertainty ripples through financial markets — all of which influence mortgage rates.
While political drama in Washington isn’t new, moments like this remind us how fragile economic confidence can be. When uncertainty dominates the headlines, rate volatility tends to follow.
2️⃣Weak Labor Data Signals a Cooling Economy
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics unable to release its official September jobs report due to the shutdown, investors turned to private-sector data for clues. Unfortunately, that data didn’t offer much comfort.
According to ADP’s latest report, the U.S. economy lost 32,000 jobs in September, and August’s numbers were revised from showing a gain of 57,000 to a loss of 3,000. Small and mid-sized businesses — the backbone of the economy — were hit the hardest.
This is a clear sign that the labor market, once viewed as unshakable, is starting to weaken. Wage growth has also cooled slightly, showing that inflation pressures are easing — but at the cost of slower hiring.
The Fed will be watching this closely. A softer labor market could give them more flexibility to cut rates later this year. But until the shutdown ends and official data resumes, uncertainty will likely keep investors on edge.
3️⃣Fed Officials Divided as Rates Hang in the Balance
With data limited and markets jittery, Federal Reserve members spent much of last week sharing their views on where the economy goes from here — and opinions were all over the map.
Some officials focused on signs of a slowdown, suggesting that the Fed may need to ease rates sooner rather than later. Others warned that inflation remains too stubborn to risk another premature pivot.
That disconnect has left markets guessing. Mortgage rates, which had been trending lower for several weeks, have now stalled and even crept slightly higher. If this technical uptrend breaks, we could see further rate pressure in the short term.
For borrowers and buyers, this means timing matters. The difference of even a small rate move can translate into thousands of dollars over the life of a loan.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
Bottom Line – Locking Bias to Start the Week
With a government shutdown underway, conflicting signals from the Fed, and a labor market that appears to be losing steam, the safest approach is to start the week with a locking bias.
While we expect longer-term relief in rates once clarity returns, the short-term risks are high. If your loan is closing soon, locking now is the smarter move.
Sept 29, 2025
1️⃣ Government Shutdown Risk Rising
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown on Tuesday night is increasing. Even though Republicans control both the House and Senate, they need the support of at least seven Democrats to pass the current spending bill. Without it, the Trump Administration has stated that thousands of federal employees in roles not aligned with the Administration’s goals would be cut.
This would go beyond political posturing. A shutdown could disrupt services, weigh on consumer confidence, and create volatility in financial markets — all of which can spill over into interest rates.
2️⃣Inflation Running Hotter Than Hoped
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, came in a touch stronger than expected for August. Headline inflation rose 0.3%, pushing the annualized rate from 2.6% up to 2.7%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month and held steady at 2.9% year-over-year.
While this isn’t runaway inflation, it is not the move lower the Fed has been hoping for. With tariffs adding continued upward pressure on prices, the Fed will remain cautious about cutting rates too quickly. For mortgage rates, this means improvement is likely to be choppy, with setbacks possible any time inflation readings surprise to the upside.
3️⃣New-Home Sales Surge in August
The housing market delivered a surprise last month, as new-home sales jumped more than 20% from July, reaching an annualized pace of roughly 800,000 units. This was far stronger than economists expected and shows that even in today’s environment, buyers are ready to move when the right mix of incentives and rates are available.
Builders have been aggressive in offering buydowns, credits, and closing-cost help to attract buyers, and the modest pullback in mortgage rates has helped bring demand back into the market. However, it’s important to note that this report is historically volatile and subject to revisions. The resale side of the housing market remains sluggish, so this does not signal a full recovery.
Still, the surge in August is a reminder that opportunities are out there. When conditions line up, buyers are quick to take action.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
- With the September Jobs Report due out Friday, the safe play is to maintain a locking bias heading into the week. A stronger labor report could push rates higher, while any sign of weakness would provide more breathing room.
- Inflation remains a headwind, and political uncertainty surrounding the shutdown adds to the potential for volatility.
- For those considering a purchase, builders are still offering meaningful incentives, making this a window of opportunity that may not last.
Sept 22, 2025
1️⃣ Fed rate cut and its mixed signals
Following the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision Wednesday to cut short-term interest rates by ¼%, many were surprised to see mortgage rates tick higher instead of falling. This left some homebuyers and homeowners frustrated, especially those who were waiting for the cut before locking in a rate.
The main reason: the Fed’s rate cut masked large internal differences about where policy is headed. Some members believe the labor market is weakening quickly and inflation pressures are easing, which would justify faster and deeper cuts. Others are concerned that inflation remains stubborn and want to take a slower approach. The Fed’s “dot plot,” which shows where members think rates will go, revealed a wide range of views.
Because mortgage rates are driven by longer-term bond yields and inflation expectations—not just the Fed’s short-term rate—markets didn’t react with the kind of drop many were hoping for. While this cut was supportive, much of the good news was already priced in. As a result, mortgage rates remain near their lowest levels in nearly a year, but the drop is modest compared to what many anticipated.
2️⃣Labor market data still sending mixed messages
Thursday’s unemployment claims report showed a sharp decline from the prior week, falling back toward more normal levels. This helped ease some of the recent concerns that the labor market may be deteriorating too quickly.
While weekly claims remain relatively low, the broader picture still suggests that the labor market is cooling. Job creation has slowed, unemployment has ticked higher in some sectors, and average hours worked have edged down. In short, we are seeing a gradual slowdown, but not the kind of collapse that would signal a deep recession.
3️⃣Leading Economic Indicators signal slower growth ahead
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell 0.5% in August, bringing the index to its lowest level in 11 years. Over the past six months, the index has declined at a faster pace than the previous six-month period, signaling that the economy is slowing.
The Conference Board now forecasts economic growth of about 1.6% in 2025. That’s slower than the past few years but still not consistent with a recession. Weakness in manufacturing, softer consumer expectations, and reduced average hours worked are all contributing to the decline.
The takeaway is clear: the economy is cooling, but not crashing. That should eventually create more room for mortgage rates to drift lower. However, short-term volatility remains a real risk.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
Bottom Line
After finding a floor, mortgage rates have bounced a bit higher. While we expect rates to trend lower over the long run, the near-term path could remain choppy. If you have a home purchase or refinance closing soon, consider locking in now to protect yourself from unexpected swings.
At City Creek Mortgage, we track these shifts daily to help our clients make smarter decisions. If you or someone you know is thinking about buying a home or refinancing, now is a great time to talk strategy and secure a strong rate before markets move again. Referrals from friends and past clients mean the world to us, and we’re committed to taking excellent care of anyone you send our way.
Sept 15, 2025
1️⃣ The Fed in Focus – Rate Cut on Deck
Mortgage rates have held on to the improvements gained a couple of weeks ago, but all eyes are now on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Current market expectations point to at least a ¼% cut to the Fed Funds Rate, with only a slim chance of a deeper ½% move. While a Fed cut is generally positive for mortgage rates, history shows that the story doesn’t always end there.
After the Fed’s aggressive 1% rate cut in 2024, mortgage rates actually climbed nearly 1% in the months that followed. That spike was largely fueled by fears of tariff-driven inflation combined with what was thought to be an overheated labor market. This time, the environment looks very different. While tariffs remain a concern, the labor market has clearly slowed, giving the Fed more breathing room. With jobs softening and economic growth cooling, the Fed is far more likely to guide rates gradually lower instead of triggering a sharp rebound in mortgage costs.
2️⃣Jobs Picture Gets a Painful Revision
The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a bombshell last week with its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage report. The data showed that the U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2025 than previously reported. That’s an average of 76,000 jobs per month erased from the totals — the largest downward revision on record.
This revelation casts serious doubt on just how strong the labor market has actually been. Mortgage rates throughout 2024 would likely have been much lower had these figures been accurate in real time. Interestingly, the unemployment rate — calculated using a different survey — has not reflected this same level of weakness, leaving economists scratching their heads. The conflicting signals make it challenging for the Fed, but the downward revisions ultimately strengthen the case for lower rates in the months ahead.
3️⃣Inflation Stubborn but Not Surging
The Consumer Price Index report for August showed that overall prices climbed by 0.4% for the month, pushing the annual rate from 2.7% up to 2.9%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, increased by 0.3% and held steady at 3.1% year over year. Shelter costs — which account for more than half of the overall inflation index — continue to run hot, rising 0.44% in August alone.
Although inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, it is not accelerating rapidly. With tariffs still pushing certain prices higher, many experts are hopeful that this pressure will prove temporary. For mortgage rates, the key level to watch is the 10-Year Treasury yield. If yields can break below the 4% mark, we could see another meaningful round of improvements. However, with Wednesday’s Fed announcement looming, markets could swing quickly in either direction.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
Bottom Line
We are in a rare window of opportunity. Rates have already improved from their summer highs, but the path forward hinges on the Fed’s message this week and how markets react. If you’re preparing to close on a home or refinance, now may be an excellent time to lock in the gains we’ve seen. Waiting for further improvement carries risk, especially with volatility expected mid-week.
For those not yet in the market, now is the time to get prepared. When rates dip further — and they eventually will — opportunities can disappear quickly. If you or someone you know is thinking about buying, refinancing, or simply wants to explore what’s possible, we’d be honored to help.
Sept 11, 2025
1️⃣ Jobs Report: A Telling Slowdown
The August jobs report showed the U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs, far below the 150,000–200,000 pace that economists typically view as “healthy.” The slowdown is most visible in interest-rate-sensitive industries: construction payrolls slipped, retail shed workers, and manufacturing posted another month of contraction. On the flip side, government hiring and health care continued to do the heavy lifting.
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, matching highest proportion of joblessness since October 2021. Also, the report showed part-time jobs climbing, with full time employment count falling. When you add in downward revisions of job gains to prior months’ data, and the overall picture looks even softer than headlines suggest.
For the Federal Reserve, this is both good and bad news. On one hand, slower hiring reduces inflationary pressure and supports the case for eventual rate cuts. On the other, it raises recession concerns if households pull back spending. The Fed is walking a fine line—one misstep could tip the economy from “soft landing” to “hard landing.”
2️⃣Tariffs: Supreme Court Risks and Rewards
The administration’s latest tariffs, spearheaded by Treasury Secretary Bessent, remain one of the most controversial economic policies on the table. While they’ve been promoted as both a revenue stream and an inflation-control measure, a growing group of businesses, trade groups, and lawmakers argue they cross constitutional lines. The Supreme Court is now poised to decide whether these tariffs represent legitimate executive action—or an unlawful tax that should rest with Congress.
The potential outcomes carry significant market consequences:
- If Upheld: Tariff revenue continues to flow into government coffers, and the White House can keep using tariffs as both a fiscal tool and a bargaining chip in trade negotiations. Inflation may remain stickier as businesses pass costs along to consumers.
- If Struck Down: Consumers and companies could see relief through lower import costs, which would help ease inflation and potentially push mortgage rates lower. But the Treasury would need to borrow more to offset lost revenue—possibly driving up long-term yields.
In short, whichever way the Court rules, the ripple effects will be felt across Wall Street, Main Street, and mortgage rates alike.
3️⃣Mortgage Rates: Big Drop, Big Opportunity—But Stay Nimble
Mortgage rates dropped sharply last week, with some lenders repricing loans multiple times a day as bond markets rallied on weaker economic data. For many borrowers, this is the lowest point they’ve seen in months.
Where do we go from here?
- Opportunities Ahead: If the labor market continues to soften and tariffs are rolled back, bond yields could trend lower into the fourth quarter. That means more affordability for buyers and potential refinance opportunities for homeowners who purchased in the last two years.
- Risks to Watch: This Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is a wildcard. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could spark a sharp reversal, sending rates higher just as quickly as they fell. Global risks—like oil price volatility or unexpected geopolitical flare-ups—could also feed inflation and spook bond markets.
With rates having fallen so quickly, there’s always the risk of a technical pullback as traders lock in profits. If you’re closing soon, now is a golden chance to capture savings. For those further out, there’s a reasonable case for patience—but it comes with the trade-off of short-term volatility.
💡Rates & Market Outlook
With rates having fallen so quickly, there’s always the risk of a technical pullback as traders lock in profits. While there is no reason to rush to lock, if you’re closing soon, now is a golden chance to capture savings. For those further out, there’s a reasonable case for patience—but it comes with the trade-off of short-term volatility.
