17 Oct Bonds at Top of Channel
It’s another quiet news day today. Unless some unexpected news comes in that shocks the market, I anticipate that markets will be relatively flat throughout the day. With mortgage bonds trapped in a broad range, there is a clear floor and ceiling in place. Therefore, we will live by the rule of float when at the bottom of the channel and lock when near the top. Since breakouts are the exception and not the rule, this method is considered the most accurate and reliable way to predict the direction of rates. Now when there is potential market moving news to be released, that can trump the technical picture. For today, the technical picture will likely be the probable driver of interest rates.
With bonds at the top of a trading range, we will maintain our locking bias.