A 5% 10-Year Treasury Note Yield?

Today is another day without any scheduled economic news. So once again, the technical picture will drive the markets. With the US stock market within a hair of reaching new all-time high trading levels, the technical outlook for the mortgage bond market is not looking good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10 Year Treasury Note yield hit new multi-year highs in the weeks to come, along with the US stock market surpassing all-time high levels in the coming days. This could easily put mortgage interest rates at multi-year highs in the days to come.

JP Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon said in a recent interview that a 5% 10-Year Treasury Note yield is “possible” in the months to come. Given that the yield is currently at 2.95%, this would be a significant increase. That would also likely drive mortgage interest rates closer to 6%, which is something that the market hasn’t seen in a long time. Now this is of course just one person’s opinion. I don’t anticipate mortgage rates getting anywhere near 6%. However, Jamie is considered to be one of the most respected voices on market conditions, so his opinions are certainly worth mentioning.

There remains little chance of seeing a significant improvement to mortgage interest rates. The current market still favors a locking bias.