13 Jul Strong locking bias
It appears that Greece was able to negotiate acceptable terms with their creditors and will be receiving a bailout that will help them get back on their feet once more. Although at this point the agreement is only verbal, it appears likely that the $80 billion euro deal will be final soon. Greece bowed to nearly all the demands of its creditors and has several strict conditions it must adhere to. It will be difficult for Greece to fulfill all of the required conditions while maintaining support from its people. After promising a much better plan when they rejected the referendum earlier this month, the leaders of Greece are in a weakened state for backing down on most all of their demands. The situation is far from over and could continue to create volatility in the US financial markets.
Today is a quiet news day. However, the reports heat up as the week progresses. The highlights will be a speech by Fed President Janet Yellen on Wednesday and a reading on inflation by means of a report on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Both have the ability to shake the markets one way or the other. Therefore, stand guard and be prepared for possible volatility.
Mortgage rates moved higher the past few trading days, and are now right near highs of 2015. A look at the charts shows another steep downward channel formation. If bonds are not able to break out of this downward cycle, we will see mortgage rates surpass the highs of 2015. Hopefully, bonds can stabilize and maintain their current position. It would be encouraging to see the longer term sideways channel pattern continue.
With little hope of mortgage rates improving in the near term, we will maintain our locking bias. A break beneath current support will be VERY negative and could lead to rates taking another step higher.