20 Jun Locking Bias
Sentiment in Great Britain regarding leaving the European Union has flipped according to a recent poll. Last Thursday, a poll taken that day reported that 45% or their voting population was in favor of a “Brexit” and 42% wanted to stay. The latest poll, however, showed a flip flop, with just 42% wanting to leave and 45% wanting to stay. The results of the actual vote should be released Thursday in the late afternoon here in the US. It will be at that time we learn of the final conclusion to the story. Since a “Brexit” would likely cause money to flow into the safe investments of the 10 Year Treasury Note and mortgage bonds, the reversal in sentiment has caused mortgage bond prices to drop lower. Stocks on the other hand are much higher on the news, as investors anticipate less volatility without a “Brexit”. This matter will likely increase the level of volatility we see in both the bond and stock markets this week. Therefore, we need to be careful and watch the markets closely.
Mortgage bonds have broken beneath the floor of support that they worked so hard to break above. It’s important to once again point out that each of the past times bonds have been at that level, which has only been a few times in the past the years, they make a noteworthy drop shortly after. With a long way to fall until bonds hit the next floor of support, history could once again repeat itself.
Although not as favorable as they were mid last week, the current APR on mortgage loans continues to be near multi-year lows. This makes now a great opportunity to purchase a home or refinance your current mortgage to a lower rate. Further, with values moving higher the past few years, it is also an opportunity to consider removing or reducing mortgage insurance premiums.
Given the continued weakness in the bond market, we will maintain our locking bias.